Chris Shebib offers his insights into where the real estate investing opportunities lie and shares a strategy that is the next growth area for BRRR’s.
Sarah: Chris Shebib is also an investor. I've had the pleasure of getting to know him in the last couple of years. He's been a guest on my podcast. And currently he’s doing some really amazing things. And he's an award-winning real estate investor and has been investing for 30 plus years in Canada and also in the US. He has completed millions in forced appreciation, renovations, and has a strong track record of producing through multiple investing strategies in different markets and different market conditions in both of those countries.
He's going to be providing today a market update for the Durham Region and what you need to know when deciding on where exactly to invest. And keep in mind, we've got a lunch and learn with Chris coming up. So, we will announce that very shortly, but Chris, welcome and the floor is yours.
Chris: Awesome. Thanks Sarah. And thank you for a great introduction and good to see you again, for sure. Okay. So, let's jump right into the market update. And what I'll do here is operate from the premise of where I think everybody's on, right? The market is obviously a very aggressive market. It's a sellers market. And so a lot of what I'll share with you today is not just what's going on in the market, but how to succeed in the market. Which I think is the underlying question underneath how the market is doing and what's going on in the market today?
Blue Orchard Property Group is my company. We're a team of realtors. And Sarah's great intro, we covered a bunch of the bio on me. So, we do a few different things. We do training and education. We do passive investing, which is a big part of our strategy. We do strategic planning and we also do guided investing. You'll see a little bit of this being touched on here in a few minutes. But ultimately that is a big part of how we help clients today. And we're definitely not a standard realtor based company. We're a full service consulting company.
So, we start by consulting with our clients around what are your goals? What are your financials, meaning your title and qualifying power? What markets suit you best based on your goals and your title and your finances. So, primary, secondary, or tertiary markets, which we'll talk about again. And what strategies, right? It's not a one size fits all.
The nice thing about real estate investing is that there are a number of different strategies. And part of what we do in the consulting is identify what your goals are, what your capital is and your title, and then what strategies fit you the best based on that. And then into vetting deals. So, we'll talk about some BRRRRs here. When we talk about the market update, how did those deals go, there's six critical criteria that we go through and we do a lot of training and education around those things so that when investors are vetting and finding BRRRRs, that we can find the very most successful properties for those investors. And then winning the deal, this is directly related to the market update itself.
So, winning the deal is an art and a science in the market that it is. So, again, we know that the market is very much a sellers market, and then we'll define what that is here in a few minutes. But winning the deal is a big part of the strategy as well. And then we also consult around running the rentals and how to refi properly and how to market, screen tenants, find property management, and get to profitability. So, it's the full cycle that we're working with clients on not just purchasing.
I mentioned part of what I'm going to do in this market update is again, contextualize what's going on in the market. Because what is an underlying concern and for a lot of investors is, why real estate? So, this URL here at the bottom of this slide is an excellent study. So, in a nutshell, this study is probably one of the most comprehensive studies done to date. And it really is.
Let me back up here. It's a 150 year aggregation of data across 13 of the major centers around the world across all investment types and real estate. That quick conclusion on the study of real estate has performed everything. And that is, it speaks directly to the stability of real estate, which is why we're all here.
But when we're in such an aggressive market, it's one of those underlying nagging questions, haunts people. And when I talk about the market and where it's at, and I show some of the trends, this data point is very important for investors to remember that there's a long track record here.
And so it's not about the media headlines around what's going on in the market today and is sustainable and all those things are relevant and important, but it's also important to remember the long-term data set that we're extrapolating from when we continue to invest in real estate. So, that's where this is coming.
Now, let's look at the GTA. So, the GTA, the average single family home price from 1967 to 2020. So, I'll give you the numbers though from 1967, the average price was $24,000. If you can believe that 2020, the average price is 905k and the GTA for a single family home.
The blended average appreciation over the last 53 years in the GTA is 7.08% and that is phenomenal. When you think that is just one component of the three major components that you build wealth with from real estate there's appreciation, which is 7.08% blended over the last 53 years. And then there's mortgage pay down and cashflow.
And there's lots to be said about that, but this is quite a long standing trend. So, we think globally over the last 150 years, it's performed everything. When we think more regionally in the GTA or the Golden Horseshoe had a blended history, average of 7.08%, which is a phenomenal part of where all that comes from in real estate.
When's the best time to invest? It's either today or 15 years ago. And that continues to be the trend for a long time, over 150 years. All right. So, now, why the golden rule. So, this again, there's a lot to dig into here. I'm skimming over it to give the overview and context for the market itself as we drill down from global rate down into Durham, so that it's contextualized.
So, there's a lot to be said here. But quickly here, you can see this big green belt over top of the Golden Horseshoe. That is one of the largest green belts in the world and it landlocked a whole bunch of the GTA between that Greenbelt and Lake Ontario. And so why is that done? It's done by the city, by the provincial planners to create density. Why do we want density? The city planners want more people per square foot for more tax dollars per square foot. So, less sewers, less garbage collection over a broader area.
Densification creates more profit per square foot, which is smart. Land scarcity, again, landlocked between the Greenspace and Lake Ontario population growth, we've got somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 new immigrants coming into the GTA every single year. Now, COVID is the anomaly to that, but the immigration projections are already more than making up for any anomalies that happened during the COVID period, lack of supply.
I mentioned earlier that we're in a sellers market and we have been for quite some time. So, days of inventory remain at really incredible lows. So, the average across the GTA days of inventory is around 10 days. Now, what that means is that if everybody stopped selling their houses today, and all the buyers remained the same as they are, there would be 10 days of buying left, and then there would be no more inventory to give you a reference.
A balanced market is about two months of supply. We have about 10 days, right? So, that is very much a sellers market. And then we look at the Golden Horseshoe and transportation funding, there is a phenomenal amount of infrastructural improvements happening from a transportation standpoint, through the GTA that we will drill into in more detail.
Again, this is more of an overview, so we'll get into more detail as we go forward. And then Canadian desirability. So, why do we have 150,000 to 200,000 immigrants? The GTA and Canada make the top five list of desirability for just about every list.
And in 2020 and 2021 Canada ranks as number one, a very desirable place to live and GTA and the golden horseshoe is one of the most desirable in Canada, which makes it quite phenomenal for us as investors. A really good opportunity right in our backyard. So, now we're drilling down and saying, okay, so we started globally, win-win regionally.
And now we're looking at how do we identify a good market? So, what are good areas within these regions? So, we talked about population growth and land scarcity, large transportation improvements, big development. This 1, 2, 3 step model is really there's so much to be said about market research and market analysis and those market drivers.
But if we wanted to step away from that and look at a very simple recipe to find good places to invest, look at that one to three model that's outlined here. Population growth, land scarcity, large transportation. Why? Because large transportation is governed by the city planners. They govern where the big transportation infrastructure improvements are going to happen because they're predicting growth in those areas. And not only predicting it, but they're helping facilitate it.
And then big developers. They watch the city planners. They work with the city planners. They look at where transportation for infrastructure improvements are happening and big development follows that, the Winfield development in Durham. It's absolutely massive. Kedron, 22,000 new homes and 10 new schools. Those are the big developers that are following the transportation infrastructure improvements. And all we need to do is follow that 1, 2, 3 recipe step for us, the smaller investors, relatively speaking, we follow that recipe and that's where a whole bunch of success and growth and demand can follow.
So, is Durham region one of those markets? Absolutely. We've got 407 phase one and phase two coming through. Kedron we've got Winfield, we've got the GO train station improvements. There's a whole bunch happening there. And by the way, that's not just in the East, it's in the North and the West as well.
So, where do we work and what types of markets do we classify? So, we work all through the Golden Horseshoe in a number of things. A bunch of different markets through the GTA is where we focus and an easy way to think about these markets is to classify them primary, secondary, and tertiary. Now, the key is that it isn't a good, better, best ranking.
They're all exceptional markets. We just really want to identify, where is yours, where are you? Where are you located geographically? Because proximity is important. What is your title in qualifying power? Your capital entitled qualifying power. What is the barrier to enter that you're looking for? And then what is your risk tolerance as well?
So, think of this just very quickly. Primary markets, good examples, Oshawa, Hamilton, Barrie and by primary, we're really defining them by that because they're more evolved from an investor standpoint. So, if you look at Oshawa, Hamilton, Barrie, they all have duplexing that has been going on in those markets for a number of years now.
And so there's a lot of comps on the ARVs. The purchase price is super well-known. The conversion price is really well known. The rents are extremely well-known and so they're very evolved from an investor standpoint. Now, rewind even eight years. And there were big question marks around Oshawa and Hamilton.
They had stigmas attached to them because of the steel town, because the GM town and that is now gone because the question marks are no longer there, because they're more evolved from an investor standpoint. That's why they're labeled as primary on this list. Secondary markets, Brantford, Peterborough, Orilla they're more of a hybrid between the primary and the tertiary they're on their way.
There's not many question marks left on those markets, but they're not quite as evolved as the primaries. And then tertiaries, rewind eight years ago and Oshawa was a tertiary market. This is the idea of going where the puck's going to be, not where it is.
So, are tertiary markets bad? Absolutely not, they're a lower barrier to entry, meaning a lower price point. Now, the trick in the tertiary markets, the renter demographic, isn't quite as strong. The ARVs aren't quite as known. There's not as many duplexes already built if you're duplexing, not as many built. And so there's a bit more of a question mark.
It's a bit more long-term. So, I think as an investor, if I want less question marks and more certainty, a higher price point of primary might be a better fit. If I have the capital entitled qualifying power. If I want more of a long play and more where the puck's going to go, not where it already is and proven. Then the tertiary and then the secondary lives in the middle with a kind of a hybrid price point. So, it's really important as investors to look at that and understand that there's options in each market for that primary, secondary tertiary that can fit you really.
Okay, so now let's dig into the Oshawa market. So, this is what's going on in the Oshawa market right now from a trend standpoint. And what I like to suggest is, this green trend is all the way back from 2012 through to 2022. So, a full 10 years, the blue trend line is more of a short-term right. Just the last three years. And so, obviously the last three years is a more aggressive line, but even this green line, the longer term trend over the last 10 is still aggressive growth.
And what I propose is to make strategic decisions here from the longer trends. Do I want to invest? Is investing right for me? Make it from that green line cause that's the longer-term trend and the more broad dataset. And we still want to look at the shorter term trend. You can see there's a couple of ups, and downs.
There's a little bit of plateauing that goes on, but ultimately it's a very steep incline. And we want to watch that shorter term trend because we really want to know what's going on in the market from month to month and week to week so that we can create effective offer strategies and be competitive and win the deal without paying too much, a very key thing in today's market.
So, that's the trend right now in the Oshawa market. Now, let's look at Peterborough. Okay. So, Peterborough market. Okay, very good. All right. So, again, same thing. Longer-term trend shorter-term trend. Same kind of principle applies here. Now, you can see in the Peterborough market, again, a very aggressive trend over the last three years with some ups and downs periodically, but ultimately a very strong market over there, even in the last 10, let alone the last three.
Okay. So, that's specifically how the market is trending right now. Okay. So, now this is a lot of numbers not to digest completely as we're sitting here, but more, what I want to do is show, okay. Let's look at, in a market that is trending the way that this one is. Let's take a look at what kind of deals work.
So, this is a model for buying single family homes and duplexing them. So, the BRRRR model specifically done by duplexing can still work in a market like we're in today and I'll show you two things as it relates to that. So, one is, let's look at duplexing because that's been going on for many years. Now. Many of us have been, I've been doing that and profiting from it. What we can do in a market like Peterborough. And in a nutshell, we're going to purchase for $680,000. Our short-term capital's $300,000, our long term meaning after our refi is $163,000 cash flow $227,000 projected five-year ROI of 42%. This is at an ARV of $851,000. So, after the rental is done, we're at $851,000. Let's say we projected five years and say, we're going to sell this asset. Our net profit gross profit minus our capital at $163,000 is $343,000. So, we're going to tie up basically $163,000 and we're going to profit $343,000 is what this projection should.
Okay. So, that's important because the underlying question that I'm answering isn't just what's going on in the market, but how to succeed in the market. Okay. So, that's duplexing in the Peterborough market. Now, let's look at Oshawa. Everything again, were going from a secondary and Peterborough to a primary and Oshawa.
So, I'm showing you the difference in those two markets and what the numbers look like. So, you can assess not just what's going on in the market, but how can I succeed in it? So, purchase price of $880,000 short-term capital $347,000 long-term $182,000 cash flow of $337,000 and an ROI of 52%. Long-term net profit. Five-year projected is $473,000.
Okay. So, in this pie chart is breakdown roughly, where am I building my wealth from when it relates to this money across mortgage appreciation and cashflow. Okay. So, that's where they come from. Now, let's look at a market like it is today, which is a very competitive one.
Where can I go to, how can I position myself today, to try and build the most long-term wealth, whether the North West, East, or West, or whether I'm in a primary, secondary tertiary market, this strategy positions investors extremely well.
I think in the context of the market update, to be able to see also what works. So, secondary suites that I've just been talking about for the last 10 years, this is a standard uptown split. So, primarily on the main floor, additional dwellings on that. Now, more recently, SDU Secondary Dwelling Units are part of the provincial density mandate.
We talked about density and that land locking in the more tax dollars per square foot. And this trend is continuing as the province sets their mandates for each municipality. So, the second suite was one of those first steps. SDUs is one of those subsequent steps. So, the SDU, the secondary suite is a retrofitted apartment within the existing main house and an SDU. There's a few different flavors of these, but generally speaking, that is another dwelling unit that is outside of the main house.
So, they come as garden suites, which picture it like a garage that has turned into living quarters. Fully functional, fully autonomous with its own kitchen, own bath, own HVAC, own electrical and plumbing, and it sets apart from the house. So, it comes in garden suites, laneway homes, coach houses, tiny homes. Those are all forms of SDUs.
Okay, so, that SDU and this knowledge that we have as investors around what's going on in the region, what is going on in the Durham market? How can I categorize primary, secondary, tertiary? And then how can I position myself for long-term growth is all part of the answer to what is going on in the market? How do I succeed?
These are a huge part of what's going to be happening over the next 5, 10 years. And they themselves will evolve as the density mandate increases and as the population and supply trends continue in the direction that they've been heading. Okay. So, the growth, the approach to future opportunities.
So, now just think of this we've created phase one, we buy a property, we duplex it. Okay. We do our six months reno. We pull it from our capital. I believe the audience here is very well conditioned to what BRRRRs are. And so, I'm moving fairly fast through that, but we buy a property. We duplex it. We refi, we do our BRRRR model phase two of what I'll show you here in a minute as we hold the property for let's say three years.
So, mortgage payoff appreciation and cash flow accrues. We position ourselves for a refi roughly in that three, four year timeframe. We use those funds to now put in an SDU. Okay. So, now we're funding a third unit on the property. Take a standard BRRRR by a bigger lot position, to fund the third unit being built on the property.
So, let me show you what that looks like. That is exactly what we're doing and what we're doing with our clients. I'll show you four examples of that. So, this is a property in Peterborough, you can see this is the main house right here. And a lot is absolutely huge. This is farmland almost. It's just a gigantic, which again, when we talk about primary, secondary tertiary markets and the fact that they're there, it's not a good, better, best.
One of the benefits of a tertiary or a secondary is that there is a little bit more land availability for strategies like SDUs. It's not that they're not available in primary markets, but there's more availability in the other ones. Okay, so pros and cons. So, this is, all we've done here is rough out 33 by 23 garden suite unit that could sit on that lot.
And so, we're purchasing this phase one is to duplex it, phase two, hang on four years and let it accrue some wealth phase three refi and fund this garden suite down the road. There's some more benefits to that strategy and waiting for the garden suite as well. Yeah. Not to dig into right here but it's definitely there.
Property number two, same thing, huge backyard. And this is intentionally done to position for the future opportunity of the garden suite. Very important when it comes to investing is looking at that future opportunity to how we position ourselves best for this.
Same thing for those watching closely the last one and this one, are neighboring properties both purchased. Another huge backyard, exact same footprint, and again, a good garden suite candidate for a whole bunch of reasons, mainly because of that huge footprint of the back. Fourth property, same thing, really? This A++ location backs onto a golf course, huge backyard, great candidate for a second suite. This one happens to already be a duplex. But it's got some forced appreciation that can be done in the basement unit. And then the garden suite is more future opportunity on top.
So, very quickly just to wrap up, let's look at what garden's suite numbers look like and how that future opportunity plays it from a finance thing. Okay. So, we looked at these deals. This Peterborough example is a two unit BRRRR. Now, let's look at it as a three in a BRRRR. So, same purchase price of $680,000 short-term capital instead of around $300,000 in closing. And rentals and holding now we're on $500,000 cause we're roughing in the cost of a garden suite for around $200,000.
Now, when we refi, we're going to get a bigger payback so around $300,000. So, we've got long-term capital tied up around $200,000. Now, here's the cash flow of $1,150. Okay. So, that is a super important point for us as strategic investors who look at longer-term datasets, that employment is critical. And I'll explain why here in a second.
So, 49% ROI, and net profit of $486,574. So, tying up $200,000 to make $486,000 and five years is strong, very strong. More than that, though. Think of this $1,150 in Canada. I'm thinking of what that represents. So, we know in the market that there's a very strong correlation on almost a one-to-one correlation between the rents and the cashflow and the purchase price.
So, investors will pay more and more for a property until there's about $200 or $300 cashflow left. And then generally, there are exceptions. Generally won't go into negative cash flow just to get the property. Now, it does happen, but as a general rule of thumb, the price will go up until there's about $200 or $300 cashflow left.
So, what does that mean when we're able to create a property? Duplex has put an SDU and refire pull out $300,000 capital with $200,000 left in and still cashflow at 1150. What that tells me is that this property is set up for future increase in value. So, until the price, until the castle shrinks to around $200 or $300, that is a very good thing for future revision and the long-term kind of 5, 10 year view of that property.
So, why do I say that again? The correlation between cashflow and price is undeniable in the investment. And so if I could snap just think of it like this, if I could snap my fingers and create a hundred properties on the market that cashflow for 1,150. And investors would flock from all over Canada to buy those.
And the demand would be huge and the price would go up and up and up until there was only $200 or $300 left and then it would stabilize. So, why is this opportunity available? What's available because early adopters, just like second suites, early adopters, have a first mover advantage to be able to create these.
Now, the downside is we can't refi for quite as high. The upside is still extremely good out of the gate and there's a ton of future opportunity for that value to keep going up until that cashflow hits around $200 or $300. So, there's quite a few more moving parts in a strategy like this, but ultimately the concept is very straight forward.
This is just like second suites have been for the last 5, 10 years. We're just now expanding what the latest density mandates and extrapolating forward we already know has just happened. That is a lot around not just what's going on in the market, but also how to succeed very specifically in the market, not just today, but for that future positioning as well to make sure you're in the best position possible.
All right. So, that is it for the market update on the Durham side.
Sarah: Amazing information. That was a gold mine. Thank you so much, Chris.
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